As expected, the Reserve Bank left the official cash rate at a record low of 2.0 per cent for the third consecutive month.
All 33 economists and commentators surveyed by comparison website finder.com.au had forecast that rates would remain on hold.
It is possible the cash rate will fall further in 2015, but the feeling was that today would have been too soon, given that a 0.25 per cent cut was made in February and another 0.25 per cent cut in May.
HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham told finder.com.au that the impact of those two rate cuts still needed to be assessed by the Reserve Bank.
Commonwealth Bank chief economist Michael Blythe said the board was in “wait-and-see mode” while it assessed incoming data, such as inflation statistics due in late July.
Board members are facing conflicting urges: cut rates to stimulate the sluggish economy, or lift rates to cool the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets.
According to the finder.com.au survey, 12 of the 33 respondents expect another rate cut this year, while two said rates would rise in 2015.
The survey also found that 18 believe the Reserve Bank will start lifting rates in 2016.
The dilemma’s of a Reserve Bank Board member.
Board members facing conflicting urges: cut rates to stimulate the sluggish economy, or lift rates to cool the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets.
Kind regards,
Adrian Totolos.
Business Analyst.
Boring predictable decision but all too late. Rates should have been cut by more much sooner like the rest of the developed world but the boffins in Martin Place on the million dollar incomes sat on their hands. Anyway who cares about the Sydney and Melbourne property markets, if people want to rush in and join the bubble stampede, too bad if they burn their fingers.
33 out of 33 economists surveyed expected no change and now the announcement of “no change” is somehow “breaking news”?? (Must be a slow news day in the ifa offices).