There is just one month left until the education requirements kick in, and Padua Wealth Data has predicted that a loss of 900 advisers would be the “best case” scenario.
Based on a point-in-time analysis of the Financial Adviser Register (FAR), Padua Wealth Data founder Colin Williams found that 5,179 advisers currently intend to use the experience pathway.
For those who don’t qualify, advisers are required to meet a higher standard of education and successfully pass the ASIC adviser exam in order to continue operating after 31 December 2025.
According to the analysis, 6,469 advisers have declared on the FAR that they won’t be using the experience pathway, 91 per cent of which meet the incoming education requirements. The combined 11,648 advisers are expected to continue operating into 2026.
However, the remaining 3,811 advisers have yet to indicate on the register which pathway they intend to rely on, if they intend to stay in the profession at all.
Of this group, 1,523 advisers potentially qualify for the experience pathway, and an additional 1,396 advisers have qualifications that Williams said indicates they may progress toward 2026, though he said this group remains highly uncertain.
While incomplete records make it challenging to determine how many advisers may exit as a result of the new requirements, Williams said the “best case” would see 892 advisers leave the profession, bringing the total down to 14,567.
“When a series of ‘what if’ scenarios are performed, the net loss can easily jump in excess of 1,600. Adding together the most realistic outcomes across all categories the net loss range will be between 1,100 and 1,500,” Williams said.
If 1,600 advisers were to leave, this would bring the profession down to just 13,859.
Though, Williams noted that there are some factors that could impact this number considerably.
Namely, he said December traditionally sees a resignation spike and experience pathway advisers could fall short of their requirements due to service period being checked. It is also likely that there will be last minute FAR updates as the deadline approaches which would disrupt the current predictions while the November financial adviser exam results could see a surge of new entrants to combat some of those expected losses.
Some of the losses may also be temporary as advisers have the option of dropping off the FAR ahead of the deadline in order to complete their education requirements and later rejoin the profession.
The FAAA revealed in August that this loophole allows advisers to avoid the need to redo their professional year (PY) as those who remain on the register but don’t meet either requirement will be required to do so in order to continue practicing once they complete their education.
Although there is still some hope, Williams said a significant drop in advisers would create a number of challenges such as increasing the client load of the remaining advisers, creating longer turnaround times for clients, further exacerbate the advice accessibility issue and put increased pressure on the cost to serve.
Weekly movements
Looking at the weekly movements, the profession saw a net gain of just one adviser in the week ending 27 November, bringing the total to 15,459, bringing the net change for the calendar and financial year-to-date to a loss of 12 and gain of 289, respectively.
With the addition of 10 new entrants, this signals the loss of nine experienced advisers this week, building on growing concerns as some career advisers look to exit in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, two licensees commenced operations this week while none ceased. Some 27 licensees all saw a net gain of just one adviser, including Spark Partnership Group, Shartru, Rhombus and both new licensees.
This marks another week of small shifts after the week ending 20 November also saw no licensees with a net gain of more than one adviser.
At the other end of the spectrum, Sequoia Group was down by net three advisers after one left to start their own licensee while the remaining two are yet to be appointed elsewhere.
Four licensees lost net two advisers each, including Godfrey Pembroke with both switching to Findex, Cobalt Advisers which saw one move to RI Advice, River X losing one to Advisory Circle, and Capstone, with the rest of the advisers yet to be reappointed elsewhere.
A short tail of 14 licensees lost net one adviser each, including Entireti, Finchley and Kent, and Shaw and Partners.
Among those that gained net one adviser this week was Centrepoint, pulling in close as the third largest advice group with 587 advisers, falling just behind Count Limited with 589. Entireti and Akumin Group remains the strong frontrunner at 1,104 advisers under its AFSL.
