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Asset allocation key to Melbourne Cup win

A KPMG tax partner has applied a MySuper-style asset allocation philosophy to punting ahead of today’s ‘race that stops the nation’.

KPMG tax partner Damian Ryan has been given the task of developing a low cost “MyMelbourneCup product” – a default betting option with a diversified investment option akin to MySuper products – and has put together the following asset allocation for today’s race at Flemington:

  •  “Asset class A - An Australian bred horse that has been racing in Australia;
  • Asset class B - A New Zealand bred horse that has been racing in both New Zealand and Australia;
  • Asset class C – An overseas bred horse that has acclimatised to Australia and has had a start in Australia;
  • Asset class D - An overseas horse (whether European or Asian) that has been brought to Australia via the quarantine centre at Werribee specifically for the carnival.

Similarly, my advice to the investment managers within each sector is that:

  • Past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance;
  • No matter how good the horse, if the horse cannot stay the 3,200m, it won’t;
  • Weight stops even the best horse – this is why it is a handicap;
  • Good barriers count;
  • A good ride by a top jockey can improve a horse by a couple of lengths;
  • Track conditions on the day may improve or decrease some horses' chances.

So with this in mind (and having to come up with my selections prior to the final field being declared before Derby Day), my MyMelbourneCup default option is as follows:

  • $10 each way Asset class A – Fawkner (last year’s Caulfield Cup winner, good 6th in last year’s Melbourne Cup and great Cox Plate run on Saturday);
  • $10 each way Asset class B – Lucia Valentina (Caulfield Cup is still the best form line and she came home indicating the long straight of Flemington will suit);
  • $10 each way Asset class C – Protectionist (did anyone miss the fast closing 4th in the Herbert Power the other week);
  • $10 each way Asset class D – Red Cadeaux (the Smokey of the field, whilst an older worker now – he’s 9  could easily have won two Melbourne Cups, and will go close again this year);
  • Box Trifecta – Flexi $20.

Good luck and happy punting.

Mr Ryan added that the “guide is of a general nature only and should not be relied on”.